AWAITING SENATE FLOOR VOTE

The CLARITY Act tracker

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House in July 2025 and cleared Senate Banking in May 2026. It still has no floor vote scheduled, and the Senate calendar leaves very little room before the midterms.

Early Thunder Research. Updated 2026-07-27. Research and analysis, not investment or legal advice. Every figure below carries a primary source. Classification readings are Early Thunder's own reading of published bill text, not a legal opinion.

Bill snapshot

Bill
H.R. 3633
House vote
294-134
Senate committee
15-9
Votes needed
60

Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. Introduced 2025-05-29 by Rep. French Hill (R-AR), Chairman, House Financial Services Committee. House passage 2025-07-17, 216 Republicans and 78 Democrats voted yes, with four Republicans not voting. No Republican who voted opposed it. Senate Banking reported it 2026-05-14 and it now sits at Calendar No. 423. Any final text also has to be reconciled with S. 3755, Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act (Senate Agriculture Committee), which must be reconciled with the Banking text. 60 is the cloture threshold under Senate Rule XXII, not the passage threshold. Final passage is a simple majority of senators voting. In practice cloture is the gate. Not the first market structure bill to clear a chamber. FIT21 (H.R. 4763) passed the House 279-136 on 2024-05-22 in the 118th Congress with the same SEC and CFTC split. The CLARITY Act is the furthest one has advanced, since it has also cleared a Senate committee.

The analysis

Who is backing it, and what their numbers measure

The four largest named backers report $39.56T between them. Only $22.44T of that is discretionary, meaning capital the firm itself allocates. The rest is custody and supervision, which is a different thing and rarely labelled as such in coverage. Only one of the four issued an explicit public statement urging passage.

FirmFigureWhat it measuresHow strong the support isAs of
BlackRock$15.34TDiscretionary assets under managementNamed in coverage, no formal endorsement located2026-06-30
Charles Schwab$13.08TTotal client assets held in custodyNot discretionaryResearch commentary from one strategist, not a corporate policy position2026-06-30
Fidelity Investments$7.1TDiscretionary managed assets. A separate $18T figure covers everything Fidelity administers.Explicit public statement urging passage2025-12-31
Goldman Sachs$4.04TAssets under supervisionNot discretionaryCEO backs advancing the bill, on market structure grounds only2026-06-30
Full breakdown of the $30 trillion claim

251 tokens scored against the bill

Early Thunder scores every token on its scorecard for regulatory safety, holder concentration, and institutional adoption. Those three variables approximate what the bill measures, so we combined them into a readiness score out of 100. The median across 251 tokens is 45, which is a weaker distribution than the market narrative implies. Treat it as our own heuristic, not a legal opinion.

BandScoreTokensMarket cap
Clear path70 and above6$1.74T
Probable commodity50 to 6973$226.1B
Contested35 to 49153$53.0B
Most exposedbelow 3519$138.3B
Which tokens sit in the exposed band

What is blocking it

Ethics language for elected officials

Section 13152 of the merged text bars covered officials, employees and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring a digital asset in exchange for consideration. It does not restrict promoting or endorsing one, it does not reach dependent children, and the whole section expires at noon on 2029-01-20. Democrats wanted it wider on all three counts. Seven of them said on July 22 that the text falls short on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity.

Alsobrooks, Booker, Cortez Masto, Gallego, Hickenlooper, Warner, Warnock

Yield paid to stablecoin holders

Banks argued that letting stablecoin issuers pay holders would drain community bank deposits, and a bipartisan group added limits. Jamie Dimon has been the loudest opponent of paying yield. Goldman's David Solomon supports advancing the bill but has not commented on the yield provision, so the two are split on whether to move the bill rather than on this clause specifically.

Bank Policy Institute and community banks, versus crypto-native firms

Whether the CFTC ends up subordinate to the SEC

Coinbase's stated objections in January led with erosion of CFTC authority, a de facto ban on tokenised equities, SEC disclosure and sale restrictions on network tokens, and DeFi constraints that could push blockchains toward permissioned designs. Stablecoin yield came last on that list, not first. Coverage that reduces the withdrawal to a stablecoin dispute has the ordering backwards.

Coinbase and parts of the crypto industry

Illicit finance and AML reporting

Law enforcement groups and several Banking Democrats want stronger reporting obligations on intermediaries. The merged text answers with 25 new law enforcement sections, and Democrats still call it insufficient. Enforcement of the ethics section would sit with the Justice Department, where Democrats wanted state attorneys general involved too.

Senate Democrats and law enforcement groups

Reconciling two Senate committees

Senate Agriculture has its own vehicle, S. 3755, which cleared that committee 12-11 on a party-line vote in January 2026 and sits at Calendar No. 312. The Banking text and the Agriculture text have to be merged before anything reaches the floor. Agriculture Democrats voted no on the same ethics grounds now stalling the Banking bill, so the two disputes are really one dispute.

Senate Banking and Senate Agriculture

The floor-time problem

The Senate is in session the first week of August, then leaves. It returns 2026-09-14. Senators are scheduled out of Washington for nearly all of October and the first week of November. Election Day is 2026-11-03. Roughly 22 scheduled session days remain after Election Day, across November 9 to 10, November 16 to 20, and November 30 to December 18. The 119th Congress does not end until 2027-01-03, so a lame-duck vote stays possible on the calendar. September is the last extended pre-election window, not the last chance. The lame duck is real floor time. It is also when a bill with no funding cliff behind it competes with everything that does, and when members who just lost re-election are voting.

The full calendar arithmetic

Timeline

  1. FIT21 passes the House first

    The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act clears the House 279-136 in the 118th Congress, using the same SEC and CFTC split. It dies in the Senate. Coverage that calls the CLARITY Act the first market structure bill to pass a chamber is wrong, and the FIT21 precedent is the more useful base rate.

    Source
  2. Bill introduced in the House

    House Financial Services Chairman French Hill introduces H.R. 3633, splitting digital asset oversight between the SEC and the CFTC.

    Source
  3. Dual committee markup

    Both committees report the bill the same day. Agriculture 47-6, Financial Services 32-19. The joint path reflects the two-regulator design and it is why two Senate committees now have a claim on the text.

    Source
  4. House passes 294-134

    216 Republicans and 78 Democrats vote yes. Four Republicans do not vote, and no Republican who voted opposed it. That is the high-water mark for bipartisan support on this bill.

    Source
  5. Senate discussion draft

    Senator Tim Scott and Senator Cynthia Lummis release the Senate Banking version for comment. The Senate rewrite begins here, and it is the reason the bill still is not law a year later.

    Source
  6. 182-page Responsible Financial Innovation Act draft

    Senate Banking publishes a second, longer draft under a different name. Two competing frameworks now exist in the Senate, and definitions start diverging between them.

    Source
  7. 278-page draft with stablecoin yield limits

    The banking lobby wins language restricting yield-bearing stablecoins, arguing that paying holders would pull deposits out of community banks.

    Source
  8. Coinbase pulls its support

    Brian Armstrong says Coinbase cannot support the bill as written, the night before a scheduled Senate Banking markup. The markup slips. Stablecoin yield was one objection among several and it was not the one he led with.

    Source
  9. Senate Agriculture advances its own bill 12-11

    Chairman John Boozman's Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, S. 3755, clears Agriculture on a party-line vote and lands at Calendar No. 312 on February 2. Committee Democrats objected to the absence of restrictions on federal officials issuing or endorsing digital assets, the same objection now holding up the Banking text.

    Source
  10. 309-page compromise text

    Senate Banking publishes compromise language two days before the markup.

    Source
  11. Senate Banking advances 15-9

    Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) join all 13 Republicans. Both said a committee vote did not commit them on the floor while ethics, illicit finance, and consumer protection remain open.

    Source
  12. Reported to the Senate as Calendar No. 423

    Senator Scott reports the bill with an amendment in the nature of a substitute. This substitute is a different document from the House-passed text, and definitions moved. Being on the calendar makes the bill eligible for floor consideration, it does not schedule anything, and no cloture motion has been filed.

    Source
  13. Ethics agreement announced

    Sponsors and the White House announce negotiated ethics language after talks the previous day. Section 13152 bars covered officials, employees and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring a digital asset for consideration. It does not restrict promotion or endorsement, it does not reach dependent children, and it sunsets at noon on 2029-01-20. Extending it to children and to promotion was exactly what Democrats were asking for.

    Source
  14. 616-page merged text released

    Senator Lummis releases the merged text incorporating the ethics deal. It also folds in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, a safe harbour confirming non-custodial developers are not money transmitters, plus 25 new sections on law enforcement.

    Source
  15. Seven Democrats say the bill falls short

    Alsobrooks, Booker, Cortez Masto, Gallego, Hickenlooper, Warner and Warnock say the text falls short on ethics for elected officials, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity. Gallego and Alsobrooks are the two who voted it out of committee in May.

    Source
  16. Thune signals the window is closing

    Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he would like to at least get Clarity started, and that they will see where the votes are. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt says he is perplexed by that and would not count out the first week of August. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says he is very supportive of moving the bill forward while conceding it is not perfect.

    Source

The definitions that decide everything

Mature blockchain system
House-passed text, July 2025
The core definition is short. A mature blockchain system is a blockchain system, together with its related digital commodity, that is not controlled by any person or group of persons under common control. The operational test lives separately in the certification criteria added as Exchange Act Section 42, which cover whether the system is functional, open source, running on pre-established transparent rules, free of anyone holding unilateral authority to materially alter it, and distributed in ownership. Maturity is the concept the whole framework turns on. It is also the part that moved most between the House text and the Senate substitute, so any analysis that does not say which document it is reading is not telling you much.
The two 20 percent thresholds
House-passed text, Exchange Act Section 42 certification criteria
There are two of them and neither is a general rule about large holders. One says no person may control 20 percent or more of the outstanding voting power. The other says the issuer, related persons and affiliated persons must not beneficially own 20 percent or more of total units in aggregate. Affiliated-person status keys off acquiring 5 percent or more from the issuer, and related-person status off 1 percent. The popular summary that holding 20 percent of a token defeats maturity is wrong. An unaffiliated whale sitting on 25 percent does not break the test. What breaks it is insider supply, counted across the issuer and everyone connected to it. That makes team, foundation and investor allocations the thing to measure, not the rich list.
Ancillary asset
Definitions moved between drafts. Read the version you are relying on.
In the House framing an ancillary asset is an intangible, commercially fungible asset distributed alongside the sale of a security through an investment contract. The token is the ancillary asset and the contract around it is the security. Senate drafts have reworked this repeatedly, and the definition circulating in most explainers comes from a 2025 discussion draft rather than the current vehicle. The separation is what lets a token trade as a commodity even though the fundraising that created it was a securities offering. It is also the single most rewritten definition in the bill, so quoting it without a version label is how explainers end up describing law that does not exist.
Non-custodial developer safe harbour
Merged Senate text, 2026-07-22
The merged text folds in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, confirming that developers who never take custody of user funds are not money transmitters. Least opposition of anything in the bill, and the most practical effect on people who write code. It got almost no coverage next to the ethics fight.
Section 13152 ethics restriction
Merged Senate text, 2026-07-22
Covered officials, employees and their spouses may not issue or sponsor a digital asset in exchange for consideration. Promotion and endorsement are not covered, dependent children are not covered, and the section has no force after noon on 2029-01-20. The three gaps are the whole dispute. Democrats want promotion covered, children covered, and the sunset removed, and the bill does not move until that lands.

Common questions

Has the CLARITY Act passed?
Not yet. The House passed H.R. 3633 by 294-134 on July 17 2025 and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 on May 14 2026. It sits on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Calendar No. 423 with no floor vote scheduled and no cloture motion filed.
What does the CLARITY Act do?
It gives the CFTC spot market oversight of digital commodities and leaves securities regulation with the SEC. A mature blockchain system is one not controlled by any person or group under common control, and the operational criteria add two separate 20 percent limits. One caps any single person at 20 percent of voting power. The other caps the issuer, related persons and affiliated persons at 20 percent of total units in aggregate, so insider supply is what the rule targets rather than any large holder.
Who supports the CLARITY Act?
Press coverage names BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs and Grayscale, and aggregates their assets into a figure above $30 trillion. Two things are wrong with that. The number mixes discretionary assets under management with custodial client assets and assets under supervision, and only Fidelity issued an explicit public statement urging passage. There was no joint endorsement.
Was the CLARITY Act the first crypto market structure bill to pass a chamber?
No. FIT21, H.R. 4763, passed the House 279-136 on May 22 2024 in the 118th Congress with the same SEC and CFTC split, then died without a Senate floor vote. The CLARITY Act has gone furthest because it also cleared a Senate committee.
Which tokens are most exposed if the CLARITY Act passes?
Early Thunder scored 251 tokens on the research variables that approximate what the bill measures. Six clear the top band and the median is 45 of 100. Excluding bitcoin and ether, 32 percent of tracked altcoin market cap sits in the most exposed band, led by BNB and TRON.

Every figure on this page carries a primary source. Research and analysis, not investment or legal advice.

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